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Morgan Stanley ups MGM China (02282) to HK$27
Morgan Stanley raised its target price for MGM 
China (02282) to HK$27 from HK$26, and maintained its "overweight" rating.
  With the opening of MGM Cotai on 13 February, the research house expects the new Cotai 
property to contribute US$224m in 2018 and US$525m in 2019 (vs. previously US$219m and 
US$525), reflecting added contribution from strong demand in CNY. Management highlighted 
that mass win/table/day in CNY were close to Peninsula level (~more than US$10K), higher 
than Morgan Stanley's estimate of US$7K for 1Q18. Morgan Stanley's market share gain 
expectation from the new casino is only 4% by 2019, much lower than the 6% gain by Wynn
Macau after its opening of Wynn Palace. Historically, MGM has had similar mass market
share and mass win/table/day in Peninsula despite lower hotel rooms/tables.
  MGM China 4Q17 EBITDA grew 9% YoY/23% QoQ and gained market share in both VIP and Mass 
(+0.7%/+0.5%, according to Morgan Stanley's estimates). Post the table allocation, Morgan
Stanley raised its EBITDA forecast for Peninsula casino in 2018/19 by 4%/3% to US$609m and
US$626m.

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